The downstream fuel playbook for 2027

Downstream fuel businesses enter 2027 with four pressures arriving together, and each one is now measured by someone outside the company.

Supply is the first. The IEA's September 2026 Oil Market Report put net exports of diesel and gasoil from the Gulf at 390 kb/d in August, just over a quarter of pre-war levels, and recorded US diesel prices above $200 a barrel in early September, 94% higher than before the war. Global observed oil inventories had fallen by 507 million barrels since the conflict began. The IEA now expects a full recovery of Middle East supply only in 2027.

Margin is the second. The CMA has not found retailers exploiting the crisis, but it remains concerned that most of them price passively and keep margins high, and it has promised a more detailed review this autumn. Since 2 February 2026 every UK forecourt price change has had to reach Fuel Finder within 30 minutes, which turns each site's pricing history into a public, timestamped record.

Electrification is the third. Battery electric cars took 28.3% of UK new car registrations in September 2026, a record 99,201 vehicles. The year-to-date share of 26.2% sits below the 33% the zero emission vehicle mandate requires for 2026, and the mandate is under review. The decision to add high-power charging has to be taken years before fuel volume goes, and it brings its own grid and reporting obligations.

Evidence is the fourth. At current diesel prices every litre lost costs more, and replacement cargoes arrive from refineries and traders a buyer may not have used before.

The common requirement is a business that can show, for any site and hour, what it paid, charged, received and sold, from records it controls. This report sets out where those records break and the decisions to take between November 2026 and June 2027.