Geopolitics & Scenario Planning
A scenario is useful when it names the signal to watch, the figure it moves and the decision already agreed. We build scenarios that way and wire them into the model the finance team runs.
Questions we help answer
- What happens to our margin if a tariff on our main sourcing country changes next quarter?
- Which currency movement would turn our most profitable market unprofitable?
- How exposed are we to a single supplier, port or payment provider?
- What would we do, and in what order, if a key market closed to us?
- How quickly can we re-run the plan when an input changes?
What we do
Exposure map
Where the business depends on particular countries, currencies, suppliers, routes and providers, drawn from purchasing, sales and payment records.
Driver-based scenario model
A model linking tariffs, exchange rates, freight and supplier availability to margin and cash by market, built so the finance team can re-run it when an input moves.
Trigger points and playbooks
For each scenario, the signal to watch, the threshold that triggers action and the response agreed in advance, with an owner.
Resilience options
Practical alternatives such as second suppliers, pricing changes, currency terms and market reweighting, costed against the exposure they reduce.
- How an engagement with THEFOCUS startsDiscuss this with us
How we approach it
- 01
Start from the transactions
Exposure is read from what the business buys, sells and pays, including suppliers and routes that never appear on a risk register.
- 02
Link scenarios to the P&L
Each scenario moves named inputs in a working model, so its effect on margin and cash is calculated in the model the finance team already uses.
- 03
Agree responses before they are needed
The leadership team agrees trigger points and responses in calm conditions, and the monitoring is built into the regular reporting.
Client results
View allTürkiye · Commodities, Trading & Sourcing · 2026
Verified buyer sourcing and sales-channel comparison for a small agricultural grower
A small grower holding a few tonnes of a new-season crop asked for verified firms that buy direct from producers. We built the list from official membership registries and showed that the choice of sales channel mattered more than the choice of buyer.
Verified buyer list, channel comparison and call plan delivered; sale outcome not recorded
Türkiye · Jewellery & Luxury Goods · 2026
Launch program for a new fine jewellery brand, from positioning to storefront and production equipment
A young jewellery brand preparing to sell direct to consumers engaged us for a multi-phase launch program. So far that has produced the brand position, a built storefront, the sales and social accounts, a product render standard and a purchase recommendation for in-house casting equipment.
Positioning, storefront and equipment decision delivered; brand not yet launched
Relevant industries
How an engagement with THEFOCUS starts
A first conversation is about your situation. If there is a fit, we propose a scoped diagnostic with a fixed deliverable before any larger commitment.
Discuss this with us01
A working conversation
Forty-five minutes with the person who would lead the work. We ask about the decision, the systems behind it and the deadline.
02
A scoped diagnostic
Read-only access, a fixed timeframe and a written finding: what the records show, what it costs and what to change first.
03
A plan you can act on
Changes, owners, measures and exclusions in writing. The same team then builds and measures, or hands over cleanly.
- One accountable team
- The people who diagnose also build the systems and measure the result.
- Partners chosen per problem
- Independent specializts join for the parts that need them, under one contract.
- Records before dashboards
- Orders, ledgers and logs are reconciled before any recommendation depends on them.
Questions executives ask
Do you forecast political events?
No. We do not predict events. We model what each plausible change would do to your margin and cash, and agree in advance what the business will do if it happens.
Will we be able to update the model ourselves?
Yes. The model is built in tools your finance team already uses, with documented inputs, so it can be re-run without us when a tariff, exchange rate or freight cost changes.
Discuss this with us
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